Business Cycle Indicators, September 1st

IHM/Markit (aka Macroeconomic Advisers) releases July GDP:

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for August employment  as of 9/1 (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (9/1 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.

The reverse radical takes shape…

IHM/Markit notes that the monthly GDP estimate implies a modest downturn in August and September numbers, given the current tracking estimate for quarterly GDP.