August Wisconsin Employment: Continued Slow Recovery?

My guess, based on a first differences specification of Wisconsin employment on national, in logs, 2019-2020M07.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in Wisconsin, June release (brown), August release (brown), Economic Outlook forecast of June (teal), author’s forecast based on national employment (brown box), in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, DWD, Wisconsin Economic Outlook (June 2020), and author’s calculations.

For July, the forecast error was -9547 (I overpredicted, by 0.35%), as discussed in this post.