August Private Payrolls

ADP released its August numbers, showing slow growth.

Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment (blue), Bloomberg consensus (light blue square), and ADP private nonfarm payroll employment (red). Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg accessed 9/2/2020, and author’s calculations.

In the past, the ADP release has had only limited predictive power for the BLS number, above and beyond what is contained in the previous month’s number — at least in normal times (see this post).