Wisconsin Employment in September

Statistics released by Wisconsin DWD show nonfarm payroll employment growing in line with US, but — like at the national level — at a decelerating pace.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in Wisconsin, September release (brown), Economic Outlook forecast of June (teal), author’s forecast based on August release of state and September release of national employment (brown box), in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, DWD, Wisconsin Economic Outlook (June 2020), and author’s calculations.

June through September month-on-month annualized growth has declined from 59% to 14% to 17% to 11%.

I used a first-log-differences specification between Wisconsin and national employment over the 2019-2020M08 period to forecast August employment. For September, the forecast error was 13072 (underpredicted by 0.5%). The methodology is discussed in this post.

Manufacturing employment continued to grow as well, although somewhat haltingly, given August employment is revised down.

Figure 2: Manufacturing employment in Wisconsin, September release (black), August release (brown), in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS and DWD.

Accommodation and food services are down 54800, or 22.8% relative to February 2020.

Figure 3: Accommodation and food services employment in Wisconsin, September release (black), in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS and DWD.

The unemployment rate also fell, from a revised 6.3% to 5.4%; US unemployment rate fell from 8.4% to 7.9%.