DWD will release July numbers tomorrow. Here’s my guess for employment. First, what we know now.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in the US (blue), in Wisconsin (brown), in logs, 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, author’s calculations.
I can use the historical relationship between the national and Wisconsin series (2019-2020M06) in first differences to forecast July employment.
Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment in Wisconsin, 000’s, s.a. (brown), Economic Outlook forecast of June (teal), author’s forecast based on national employment (brown box). Source: BLS, Wisconsin Economic Outlook (June 2020), and author’s calculations.
This implies a 37 thousand increase, i.e., 1.4% (not annualized). Note that as of June, we are outpacing the June 2020 Economic Outlook forecast thus far.
Wisconsin is somewhat more manufacturing-heavy relative to the nation overall. It’s interesting to note that Wisconsin’s manufacturing recovery tailed off earlier than the nation’s.
Figure 3: Manufacturing employment in the US (blue), in Wisconsin (brown), in logs, 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, author’s calculations.