Deal/No Deal

Macro (GDP) implications of “no deal”.

Not sure there’s any specific comparison, but I can show the Goldman Sachs forecast from early September (in the WSJ survey) and the “no deal” forecast from a couple weeks ago.

Figure 1: Actual GDP (black), Goldman-Sachs early September forecast (blue), Goldman-Sachs “no deal” forecast of 23 Sept. (red). Growth rates applied to relevant level of GDP. Source: BEA, WSJ September survey, Goldman-Sachs, and author’s calculations.

The growth rate in the GS early-September forecast is cut in half (6% to 3%, SAAR) in the no-deal scenario; of course, there are other things changing, but this probably gets at a general magnitude of effect.