Business Cycle Indicators, September 15th

With today’s industrial production release, here’s a picture of five indicators tracked by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC):

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for September (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (9/1 release), NBER, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

The 0.4% (m/m not annualized) increase was below the 1.0% Bloomberg consensus (although previous month’s value was revised up). Manufacturing production was also lower than anticipated — 1.0% vs. 1.2% expected.