Business Cycle Indicators as of October 2

Nonfarm payroll employment under consensus, confirms the slowdown:

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (10/1 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.

The net change in employment was 661 thousand, under the 850 thousand in the Bloomberg consensus. August employment was revised down. More discussion here.