Business Cycle Indicators, 24 June 2020

Reverse radical or V-ish (or W?)

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), Bloomberg consensus estimate at 7/24 (blue gray), Goldman Sachs Employment Tracker estimate based on data thru 7/7 (sky blue), all log normalized to 2019M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (6/26 release), Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs (7/23/2020), NBER, and author’s calculations.